Bulls versus Bears

Bulls versus Bears will throw a really quick July 2009 Contest. The contest is super simply, all you have to do is give your prediction for the closing value of the S&P 500 on Friday, July 31st. Leave a comment on this post no later than Friday, July 24th.

Here is what you can win:

1st Price: A one month 200x120 Custom Ad Spot worth $40.

2nd Price: A one week 200x120 Custom Ad Spot $ $15.

3rd Price: 200 EC Credits

Less than 10 entries will cause an extension of the contest. Good Luck to everyone.








Posted by Apollo on July 5th 2009.

I want to thank my Top 10 Entrecard Droppers for their continued support of Bulls versus Bears in June 2009.







Guitarbench.com

The Way I see It

Funky Town Disco Music

60 Were Enough

Random Ramblings

Go Las Vegas Baby!

The Ad Master

A Happy Marriage

Mariamichelles's Furkids and Animal Rescue

Beethoven Midi

I want to thank everyone who continues to visit the Bulls versus Bears and contributes to the success of this blog.

Posted by Apollo on July 5th 2009.

You all have heard the old Wall Street saying 'Sell in May and go away' and you may or may not be tired of hearing that, but keep in mind that there is a reason why it stuck around for ages. Well, it was about time for a few new ones and last month you were served the 'Sell in June and don't come back too soon' which you may want to remember for next year as well. That was last month and here is another 'new' one, labeled 'Sell in July and wave the markets good bye'.

Just keep it simple, and walk with the bear. Yesterday offered a great chance to take the bear by the hand and boost your portfolio a little. The markets threw a 'welcome to the third-quarter and the second-half' present, but most failed to take it for a similar reason. Not only were you able to sell the initial rally and reap some nice profits, but you were also given a nice entry to put your new capital to work. Today, the bears decided to throw a nice party but for some strange reason, or rather evident but idiotic reason, the majority is terrified of strong bears while they don't mind to ride and old bull. On Tuesday you had a chance to position yourself for a long walk with the bears (June Equity Market Crash was silent but strong) and you may want to keep a few levels in sight (How far will equity markets correct over the summer and fall of 2009?), unless you rather not take advantage of some hot summer action and breezy fall fun.

There are plenty of unsophisticated amateurs as guests on the top two Dumb Money 'goldmines' available right now, CNBC and Bloomberg, who predict a 5% (how pathetic do you really have to be?) and a 15% (very bullish prediction) correction. Keep in mind that the same unsophisticated amateurs, which by some twist of fate are allowed to mismanage hundreds of millions of dollars and more, have lost 40%-50% last year, in one of the best market environments since the early and mid 30's. They also missed the strong bear, which today is even stronger than it was in 2007 and 2008. On top of that they have an excellent track record of mistakes while their portfolios tell the sad story of constant mismanagement and unsophisticated moves.

Do you really want to listen to them or trust them now? They have missed the start of this powerful bear market, so do you really think they will be able to identify the end of it?

Maybe you embrace those unsophisticated amateurs as professionals and treasure their words because you simply hate your portfolio, you may have been disgusted with it, uploaded it with dumb money instruments and have been punished by the markets accordingly. Maybe you have been punished to the point where you just want to kick your portfolio and give it a big FU.

Just keep in mind that the harder you push your portfolio in the wrong direction or the 'mutual fund direction', the harder it will push back. You may like to FU your portfolio, but then your portfolio will FU back...

Posted by Apollo on July 2nd 2009.

Most will argue that June saw action confined to a narrow trading range or as a sideways trade with little movement in either direction. There will be even a few which are dumb and unsophisticated enough to call for a resumption of the rally from current levels. Having said that, those are individuals which do not understand equity markets and have as much knowledge about them as a goat farmer has about geothermal energy.

Global equity markets were confined to a narrow trading range and on the surface, the 'headline' figure which always fakes Dumb Money, there was little movement in either direction, but underneath the Dumb Money fake the picture looks quite different. The picture has weakened tremendously. Imagine it as an underground river which slowly washes away the dirt on which a road has been build. The road may get a few cracks or nothing at all, but underneath the total collapse of the road is inevitable. Once the damage will be evident, the entire road will be washed away and not just a few tiny pieces. The same happened with global equity markets over the month of June. The damage has been done underneath the surface and Bulls versus Bears mentioned a few macro-economic reasons for the crash on June 14th (June 2009 equity market crash; Bulls versus Bears) as well as the two-tier pullback and some levels to watch over the summer on June 20th (How far will equity markets correct over the summer and fall of 2009?; Bulls versus Bears).

The damage which has been done in June was very forceful and will continue in July. The compete picture may not simmer to the surface until August or September but the longer it will take for the effects to show up the greater the fallout will be.The foundation has more cracks than investors in the markets and over 90% of global equities remain extremely overvalued on a fundamental aspect while the technical picture calls for a rather large correction as well. This bear market is huge which explains the large moves in global equities. The media excitement over the second-quarter performance is as pathetic as expected.

On top of all the fundamental and technical weakness in global equity markets there are a great amount of counter-productive socialistic policies on lawmaker's desks which will further widen the cracks in the system while banks continue to be undercapitalized while their ability to operate has been limited by the socialists who aim to decrease market efficiency, stop financial innovation and profitability of the system in general. The core of the problem has not even been mentioned and continues to plant the seeds for the next financial meltdown.

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 30th 2009.

I want to thank Joella from Blogs with Wings for her review of Bulls versus Bears and you can read the review here. Blog reviews, if conducted honest and fair, offer a great way to get some constructive criticism which will help you and your blog. As the owner of a blog you are almost guaranteed to overlook certain things which you can change in order to make your blog better and add value to it.

I am happy that Joella took some time out of her schedule to provide all of us with her review of Bulls versus Bears. She did find a problem with the blog and I am glad she pointed that out to me as it seems to have totally slipped my mind when I set up the blog. I did not even think about it until I read the review and nobody else pointed it out to me either because you have never noticed it or because you simply could care less.

So, what did Joella find or rather not find on Bulls versus Bears?

A contact page!

Well, it is hidden in the 'Advertise on Bulls versus Bears' section. You will be able to find a short sentence dedicated to contact on there, which is not the post to put it. I will add a quick contact page to Bulls versus Bears shortly. Once again, thank you Joella from Blogs with Wings for your review of Bulls versus Bears. It was much appreciated.







Posted by Apollo on June 28th 2009.

There has been this thing called hope, which has circulated around Dumb Money strong holds such as economists, socialists and mutual funds, but one thing that all those incompetent commentators on Dumb Money goldmines, namely CNBC and Bloomberg, have lost track off, as expected, is that hope and expectations are as irrelevant to the economy, and global equity markets alike, as the amount of rainfall is irrelevant to the underperformance of your unhealthy mix of mutual fund 'investments', bonds, treasury and cash you have accumulated over the years.

There are a misinterpreted data points (Recession may be near bottom, new data suggest; AP) which the Dumb Money camp takes as a sign that the recession shows an improvement. Durable Goods Orders. Orders rose 1.8% in May and yes that was unexpected but by no means a healthy economic development if you can understand why orders surged. You need to know the reason behind the facts, Dumb Money always ignores that.

So, why did durable goods orders surge last month?

Hope got a hold of orders. Everyone expects a recover in the third-quarter and inventories have been contracting which left many scared that if such a recovery takes place not enough goods would be available. Therefore orders increased to fill inventories in order to meet demand if that recovery takes place. This is only a one month increase and really not significant at all. Most of those goods will be put in inventories which will remain there as demand will not pick up, as hoped for. In the end it will just cause less orders down the road once it will be evident that the hoped for recovery remained just that, hope. Durable goods can increase each month during the third-quarter but the recession will not end. The more durable goods increase over the summer the more of a downturn will follow, which can be compared to the first-quarter GDP contraction of 5.5%.

The housing market continues the overall contraction, but Dumb Money hails victory and promotes a recovery. At the very least those recovery hopes are kept in check for now (U.S. homes recovery distressingly slow: Reuters/UMich; Reuters). Despite negative economic news and in a despereta attempt to keep the socialist ignited and sponsored 'hopy craze' alive, the Septic Tank and his Plumbers continue to recognize bright spots and promotes them right into the heart of Dumb Money (Fed says recession easing, inflation tame; AP). Lame.

Speaking of the Septic Tank, the Fed and lame, guess who has to 'defend' himslef in front of a House Commitee and answer soft questions?

You guessed it right. The Septic Tank (Fed chairman Bernanke face house committee today; AP). The Septic Tank and the Internaional Beggar forced Bank of America to acquire Merrill Lynch last year and now a few want to act as if they have a serioud job and raised questions. Nothing will result as a consequence of that, but the House Committee may be bored out of their minds. Must be a slow start to the summer.

Dumb Money also cheered the small upward revision in Q1 GDP contraction to 5.5% (Economy dips at slightly lower pace in 1Q; AP). They even take their stupidity one step further and argue that it has been revised upward twice, once from 6.1% to 5.7% and now from 5.7% to 5.5%. They stop one step short of viweing this as an economci recovery already. On the other hand, the increase in initial jobless claims as well as continued claims will be ignored (New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 627K; AP).

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 25th 2009.

What can a socialist do to further display complete ignorance besides the promotion of counter-productive policies?

The quick answer is that a socialist can defend and support feces.

President Barack Hussein Obama decided today that he should voice his support for the Septic Tank and his Plumbers (Obama says the Fed did a 'fine job' after crisis; CNNMoney.Com).

Such an idiotic evaluation was to be expected when your sole purpose at the moment seems to be the total destruction of what is left from decade long mismanagement by individual educated with wrong information yesterday in order to be the leaders of tomorrow.

Could it get more pathetic?

Yes we can...

You could try give those who have failed miserably even more power so they can abuse the system even more. Wait, that proposal has already been fired at the system and is supported in a good old socialist manner. You can twist it anyway you wish, but the Fed did a piss poor job ever since the Septic Tank took over. The Fed did not do a great job before him but definitely got worse after 'change', simply because it was the wrong change. The Septic Tank could have not done a worse job, but the simple fact that Obama hails him displays his total disconnect with reality and underscores his evident absence of knowledge and understanding. The Septic Tank has to defend himself now and will probably fight for his re-appointment as Fed Chief, while those who can manage to find two braincells which actively communicate with each other 'hope for change', even though that has a negative track record as of late.

It will boil down to if enough intelligence will be applied to the debate or if the same ignorance will continue. Chances are that, despite that there are a few other bad choices which would like the job, the Septic Tank will be allowed to shove a dildo into the anus of the system for a few more years. Once even a socialist will recognize that mistake it will be a few trillion dollars as well as a half decade too late.

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 23rd 2009.

The first ever BRIC summit held in Russia last week was a partial success while differences remain in certain areas. All four BRIC members, Brazil, Russia, India and China, have made good progress to present themselves with one voice. China and Russia are well positioned to take on their new and emerging role as global leadership power houses. The dynamic duo is likely to increase their close relationship, similar to the U.S. and U.K, and happily takes on their new global position at the top of the helm.

People screamed change all over the place and change is exactly what occurs, but maybe not the change they have expected.

There are plenty of differences amid BRIC members as well and it will take time to sort them out, but they will be sorted out in a rather short time frame. Russia pushes for a basket of reserve currencies rather than the U.S. Dollar which has not lived up to expectations and failed miserably thanks to a more than idiotic monetary policy. China is very cautious as it holds a huge amount of U.S. Dollars in their reserve and does not want to slash the value even more than it already lost. China practices a gradual reduction and therefore has not joined the aggressive but necessary calls out of Moscow which resulted in a soft combined statement out of BRIC (Russia, China seek greater international clout; AP).

However, huge progress has been made when it comes to additional purchases of U.S. backed liabilities such as U.S. Treasuries. China, Russia and Brazil has already stated in recent weeks that they would diversify their reserves through purchases of IMF issued bonds while Russia made the proposal that BRIC members should purchase treasuries among each other and not waste their assets on U.S. backed liabilities. This will result in a decrease of foreign direct investment in the U.S. which will break the neck of the already battered economy since the U.S: has relied on those foreign assets for over three decades to power ahead on a weak foundation which collapsed and will continue to collapse as expected.

BRIC will grow closer and closer over the next few quarters and execute their new global leadership position, especially China, Russia and Brazil. There are plenty of differences and conflicts of interest which will need to be solved as well in order to ensure a smooth and powerful BRIC execution of policies.

In the meantime, China opens up private investment in state dominated industries (China looking at boosting private role in industry; AP). Russia has already executed that step and China will follow suit which provides further evidence of positive change.

The World Bank has slashed its global economic outlook for 2009 once again (World Bank cuts 2009 global growth forecast; AP) while President Barack Husein Obama may want to look at 'his socialist friend' from Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, in order to get a glimpse of how not to handle a problem (Venezuela loses billions despite Chavez's controls; AP). Venezuela did not lose billions despite but rather as a result of tight controls by Hugo Chavez and Obama is on his own socialistic control power trip which will yield similar results.

The European Union, which suffers from the global economic contraction in a familiar fashion (EU: 1.9 million jobs disappeared in Q1; AP), will turn into the silent winner of the global power change due to their close and healthy relationship with BRIC members, especially Russia and China. The EU seems to better understand their global position and takes full advantage of that and looks forward to a close relationship with BRIC members in order to expand as a direct result of their involvement in BRIC countries as well as emerging economies with a friendly, non-aggressive approach. The EU has recognized their vital 'support and leadership role' and clearly understands that a healthy global economy will not be possibly without close, global relationships with key, strategic partners.

Despite the EU's clearly developed status and key global leadership positions which it has gained, executed and displayed, innovation has not been forgotten (Sarkozy wants new European rocket launcher; AP) and will continue to fuel growth in key global areas.

There are plenty of problems and conflicts within the EU, especially from the socialist controlled side of the EU, but the recognition that the EU is a leader in one area and a supporter in another area will ultimately result in the EU as a silent winner as a direct result of the global power change.

Those who ignore and fight the change will be left out and not find their role in the reshuffle of global power and significance.

Posted by Apollo on June 22nd 2009.

The U.S. health care system has been in dire need of an overhaul for a few decades, but this is the only agreement all sides involved can reach. The rest of the road is paved with disagreement on how to implement the overhaul in a manner which will work in the long run. There have been plenty of ideas which have been thrown in the room and washed away by false promises and lack of determination.

President Barack Hussein Obama will proof no different, as a matter of fact he will manage to take the best approach and concessions to date and ruin them. Everyone agrees that a health care reform is vital, but unfortunately Obama wants to push it the socialist way which will not work but further hammer the health care system, which already lacks on everything from efficiency to overall service as compared to other industrialized nations, into the ground. Health groups have offered over $2 Trillion in cost savings (Healthcare reform stumbles; Bulls versus Bears) and the drug industry offers help as well (Baucus, White House in deal with drug industry; AP) but the Obamanites will take all the positive steps and display how good prgoress can be torn in pieces by socialism. The attempt to push and force change on a Federal level will not be the smart choice and will further erode overall health care. Obama and his socialists try to press and push (Obama presses doctors to back health care overhaul; AP).

The only thing the Obama and his socialists have not done, not done yet, is to add the '...or else...' to their demands.

Obama favors a government takeover of the health care system which is the reason why the 'Obamanite' approach will backfire and further cause the health care system to deteriorate. Obama wants to cut spending on hospitals and Medicare as well as Medicaid while he also proposes, in a old fashioned socialistic brain fart, an increase in taxes. The first failure is the spending cut to hospitals which may result in a reduction in staff and a deterioration of the overall hospitals which is a counter move to a reform in health care. A reform should be aimed to improve the existing system and not to make it worse.

Obama claims that he wants a less complex system with affordable coverage for everyone but then proposes and supports ideas which will have the opposite effect and make health care less efficient, affordable and may result in the same or even less coverage. Part of this divergence is due to the fact that Obama and his socialists are quick to push those who can really work and solve the problem out of the mix and allows his group on unqualified and incompetent socialists to take their strikes at the health care system.

A health care reform is desperately needed but the realization and implementation of a health care reform should be rolled out on a state level. Each state understands their health care problems the best and there is more than one approach which will lead to fruition and each state should determine which approach will be best in their case. In the meantime the socialists have already started to cut back on Obama's proposals (Senate Dems pare back health bill; AP) but chances are that too little positive progress will be made and that the problem will not be solved on an intelligent manner while those who will suffer the most are those who can least afford it.

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 21st 2009.

That a correction will occur is even recognized by non-professional amateurs such as mutual funds and individual investors but the question of how much equity markets will give back and what will happen after that is the one most try to get answered. General consensus around the markets is that a correction between 10% and 15% will occur and that it will be a great entry point for the rest of the year and beyond.

The general consensus is always wrong and the pullback will be more severe than expected. However, it will offer a great short-term buying opportunity for the last six to eight weeks of the year before the pullback will continue. The March 2009 lows may be retested during the next pullback and will be breached early next year. This will be a two step pullback, with a nice bull trap in between. The lows for 2009 may have already been set in March but by the same token, the highs for the year have been established as well. The June 2009 highs will be the highs for the year, with little chance of an upside breach. This bear market is very well intact and will last for several more years. The upcoming two tier pullback will provide further insight on the strength of this bear. Any comparisons to previous bear markets and economic cycles in post the Great Depression are irrelevant as the set-up was completely different. The Second Great Depression has been delayed for a little bit but not evaded completely.

Here is a short overview of what investors and traders should expect from the FTSE 100, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 reached an intra-day 2009 high of 4,517.60 on June 1st as well as a 2009 Closing High of 4,506.19. This close represented the high for 2009, and chances for a breach of those levels are below 5%. The FTSE 100 should be expected to retreat to 3,604.95 with a range between 3,496.80 (potential new 2009 low) and 3,713.10.


S&P 500

The S&P 500 reached an intra-day 2009 high of 956.23 on June 11th and a 2009 Closing High of 946.21 on June 12th. This close represented the high for 2009, and chances for a breach of those levels are below 5%. The S&P 500 should be expected to retreat to 709.66 with a range between 688.37 and 730.95.


NASDAQ Composite

The NASDAQ Composite reached an intra-day 2009 high of 1,879.92 on June 11th as well as a 2009 Closing High of 1,862.37. This close represented the high for 2009, and chances for a breach of those levels are below 8%. The NASDAQ Composite should be expected to retreat to 1,303.66 with a range between 1,264.55 (potential new 2009 low) and 1,342.77.


Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an intra-day 2009 high of 8,911.11 on June 11th and a 2009 Closing High of 8,799.26 on June 12th. This close represented the high for 2009, and chances for a breach of those levels are below 5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be expected to retreat to 6599.45 with a range between 6,401.47 (potential new 2009 low) and 6,797.43.







Posted by Apollo on June 20th 2009.

President Barack Hussein Obama and his socialists are in full swing to overregulate everything they can, from the financial system to the economy and from consumers to health care. Just to display the stimulated arrogance, which is a direct result of ignorance, stupidity and a slowly fading media hype, Obama claims that overregulation does not occur with in the U.S. (Obama: US Not Overregulating; Iran Election Won't Alter Policy; CNBC). Not only does Obama display pathetic arrogance but he throws a 'Fuck You' into the mix at the wink of an eye.

Not enough that Obama slaps capitalism with a 'Fuck You', and gathers the 'anti-talent' around him so they can dildo the financial markets into their anuses, but he also picks the Federal Reserve, under the helm of the Septic Tank and his Plumbers, to abuse even more power than they already enjoy (A new role as 'risk regulator' could reshape Fed; AP). At least a few lawmakers have managed to find two braincells which communicate with each other and question that fatal idea (Financial Reform Stirs Debate: How Much Power to Give Fed; CNBC) while a few go all out and worry about the Fed with even more power (Obama's plan for Fed worries some in Congress; AP). At least there seems to be initial will power to throw that 'Fuck You' back at the source. The Fed should be stripped of power and not the other way around.

Do you remember the 'genius' Fed moves on Bear Sterns and AIG (Fed lost $5.3B on Bear Sterns, AIG holdings in 1Q; AP)?

A Q1 loss of $5.25 Billion on two brain farts, a total-to-date loss on Bear Sterns and AIG of $16.46 Billion of which the New York Fed booked $9.18 Billion.

Guess who was at the helm of the New York Fed back then?

You guessed right, Timothy Geithner!

Can you see the downward spiral, which only increases? Since when is failure rewarded?

Geithner pretty much ate ass for breakfast at the helm of the New York Fed, and received even more power as a reward for that. The Federal Reserve did a piss poor job and now Obama wants to increase their ability to abuse power.

How dumb and stupid do you have to be to think that this is a good idea?

You have to be dumb as a socialist or stupid as a mutual fund investor to swallow that pile of shit.

At the very least, there is some opposition for the time being (Scaled-Back Financial Overhaul Could Still Face Stiff Opposition; CNBC) while other lean far out the window to criticize regulation as a direct result of a crisis (Ford CEO says regulation often hurts innovation; AP).

Why is Ford's CEO able to voice cautious criticism?

He is able to do so because he did not take a bailout from the socialists and now is free to have his own opinion, unlike every bailout recipient.

Each crisis shows what could have been done to prevent the previous crisis but nothing that will result as a direct result of the crisis can be done to prevent the next one. The simple reason for that is that regulation does not increase the intelligence of those who caused the problems. Dumb Money is quick to forget that the current crisis can find its core in the tightly regulated section of global financial markets.

Less but effective regulation is required!

Why does Obama try to press the financial reform by year's end?

Mid-Term Elections! Next year there will be plenty of Senate seats up for election and the socialists already know that they will end up with a net loss in the Senate which will make it impossible to power through their idiotic agenda which is designed for total economic and financial failure.

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 18th 2009.

...for a little bit today. The bulls were allowed to run around a little bit today, amid the June 2009 Equity Market Crash (June 2009 equity market crash; Bulls versus Bears), but towards the end of the day most of the bulls were butchered and only a few managed to escape down the technology and bio-technology exits. Overall that does not change anything at all and this bear market is stronger than ever. As a matter of fact, this bear market has gathered strength over the past three months.

The next weeks will see further declines as the March 9th lows will be retested and broken by about 10% (there will be a post later this week with more exact levels, so look out if you want to have an idea where a few indices are headed to) but the declines may be more orderly or 'old fashioned' if you prefer that.

What does that mean?

Rather than busting through weak support, the bears will pause a little at support and allow the bulls to run a little while this strong bear rests in order to breach support and head to the next level. Look out for an extended pause at the March 9th lows, or roughly in a 3% range of those lows as the bears really need a lot of momentum to breach through those. After such a breach a minimum of 10% downside should be expected before a 'Santa Clause Rally' will add roughly 20% to the indices.

Why will this bear 'behave' in an 'old fashioned' manner over the summer and into the fall?

The reason is the amount of cash which is sidelined, and the bears are very well aware of that. Any attempt to wipe out that sidelined cash in one big attempt is suicide and therefore the bears will approach this hurdle with caution and strategy. Those cash piles will be demotivated and wiped out step by step through several bull traps around support levels, technical as well as psychological.

The bulls are not intelligent at all and pursue now strategy which makes it so much easier to trick the bulls into traps, slaughter them and move on. Even the least sophisticated professional investors, mutual funds, are able to trim their under-performance during bull markets which is further evidence that during a clear bull market no knowledge is required. The exact opposite holds true for bear markets. Most of the time, just as with the definition of an asset and a liability, the majority lack the knowledge to identify which market accurately represent the current market environment and set themselves up for failure.

A bear market shines light on the truly sophisticated investors.

Posted by Apollo on June 17th 2009.

The U.S. economy has continued to deteriorate thanks to the socialists' counter-productive measures and their never ending power hungry roller coaster ride. The Septic Tank and his Plumber try to keep the dying hope alive with more irrelevant assessments and a wrong outlook (Fed survey sees signs recession is easing; AP) but the equal ignorant yet less biased IMF trashes any idiotic recovery statement very fast (IMF chief warns it too soon to roll back stimulus; Reuters).

Those market participants 'gifted' with stupidity are quick to point to a minor anomaly in a few data points related to housing such as a small reduction in foreclosures (US foreclosures fall 6 percent in May from April; AP) or a one month increase in housing construction (May housing construction jumps by 17.2 percent; AP). They are quick to ignore that it was the third consecutive month in which at least 300,000 households received a foreclosure filing and that a total of 65,000 homes were repossessed. Thanks to the idiotic idea of a housing rescue plan, mortgage rates have actually increased and the Septic Tank has nothing better to offer than to call it a conundrum and scratch his forehead in a sign that he is as clueless as a socialist parasite.

The increase in home construction offers no clue of a housing rebound at all, but a small bounce should be expected after a drop of roughly 50% year-on-year. The 'hope craze' has caught on to home builders who fail to realize that demand is still absent and supply continues to run at over 10 months. They hope that a recovery will take place and attempt to position them for a rebound which is idiotic given the high supply and lack of true demand. The Obama administration has worked hard to push mortgage rates higher which further erodes the prospects of a full blown rebound in the housing market. The increase in new home construction is actually a negative for the already rattled sector.

Wholesale inflation has not showed inflationary pressures as of yet (Wholesale inflation up less than expected in May; AP) because it is a little to early for the super spike in inflation, which will occur despite the continued deterioration of the economy. The Septic Tank is likely to call that another conundrum and scratch his forehead. Once inflation will spike it will spike fast and not in small increments while it will further wipe the floor with those one the hope bandwagon. In the meantime, there are more calls for a recovery as soon as July (Bankers group sees U.S. recession ending in third quarter; Reuters).

Bankers have no idea about the economy and have not seen the crisis, so what makes you think they will know when it will end?

In the real world, the problems continue to pile up, and thanks to Obama and his socialist parasites they get worse with each report issued. Those problem range from a further decrease in manufacturing (NY Fed manufacturing slump deepens in June; Reuters) to a rise in credit card defaults (U.S. credit card defaults rise to record in May; Reuters) and from a further slump in industrial production (Industrial activity dips more than expected in May; AP) to a standstill in foreign demand for worthless U.S. Treasuries (Foreign demand for US financial assets falls; AP).

More problems are on the horizon as well which range from a replacement of the U.S. Dollar as a global currency, increase in commodity prices and a service sector which will contract further while consumers will be sidelined thanks to the counter-productive policies enforced by lawmakers. A weak labor market as well as the so called financial reforms will further add fuel to the fire. Social security, Medicaid and the entire health care system on top of twin deficits add to the mix of problems for the U.S. economy, which thanks to Obama and his socialists is on a one way road in the wrong direction. Ignorance towards the problems will only back fire.

Could it get worse?

Yes, we can...

Posted by Apollo on June 16th 2009.

President Barack Hussein Obama and his socialists continue on their power trip (Obama eyes tighter controls on banks, Wall Street; AP) and therefore takes away from the idea of a recovery altogether while he then turns around and hails progress made as well as the change that takes place. The socialists are happy that there is a global crisis as they now see a chance to further ruin the system, or what is left of the system, with their counter-productive policies.

They ensure and guarantee that another crisis will hit the economy due to their own policies.

Now the socialists are on a trip to show how an economy can be destroyed in what they would call a 'controlled manner' through pathetic policies rather than in the 'uncontrolled manner' through pathetic market participants such as mutual funds and mismanagement teams across various sectors. The result will be the same which is another crisis before Dumb Money was able to lick its wounds from this one. The problem is that those who are, unfortunately, in a position to enforce polices have no idea what caused the crisis and therefore point at factors they do not understand as the fault in the system. The more those ridiculous mis-educated idiots are allowed to stick their penis into the anus of capitalism and the free markets, the more damage they will do.

Here are just four key areas where the Obama-Socialist-Party will do heavy damage and prevent a recovery in the financial system:

1. Super Federal Control Entity. The Obamanites want to go all out and create a body which will have super regulatory powers to shut down financial institutions at their own will. The body will create stress tests and risk assessments and then decide to move in and shut down a company a la FDIC.

Are you dumb and ignorant enough to think that is a smart move?

How about next time you need to go to the hospital for a check-up you let your neighbor, the carpenter on the block, check you out and decide if you should go or not.

You probably missed the point here, so do not even bother and worry about it. Maybe you should abuse your portfolio with another mutual fund holding or even better get a few Treasuries. Pathetic!

2. Capitalization Requirements. The Obamanites now want to have a say on how much capital a financial institution should have on their unbalanced balance sheets. Most likely they are idiotic enough to trust their new super regulatory power machine and its results when they make such a capital requirement call.

That is equal in stupidity as your decision on what to wear to work on Tuesday judged by the rice harvest in North Korea last month.

Do you still miss the point?

That is perfectly fine, more mutual funds and a few bonds your way. Ridiculous!

3. Federal Oversight of Hedge Funds and Private Equity Firms. Another lousy socialist idea which will not work. This move is attempted to help out the socialist beloved mutual fund industry which gets a dildo shoved in their anus every day they show up for work across global equity markets. This move is attempted to push hedge funds and private equity firms into mutual fund status.

That will never happen!

Rather than to alienate the small group that could actually offer help and solve the financial problems you push them...

...out of the country.

Could it get worse?

Yes we can...

...change you can believe and trust in, as it is assured to cause more hardship.

4. Control consumers and lenders. Another area the socialists seek to control in a pathetic attempt to control spending behavior. The socialists are ignorant enough to think that they should allow to determine which lenders are allowed to lend how much to which consumers. An entire industry flushed down the toilet together with $700 Billion in TARP funds, $787 Billion in a Socialist Brain Fart and $3.6 Trillion in sheer socialistic idiocy designed to ruin the chance for any sustainable economic recovery.

Good bye, economic recovery...

Take a wild guess which unqualified entity is the front runner to be the systematic risk regulator?

Yes, the Septic Tank and his Plumbers. You could not find a more counter-productive choice, besides the lousy excuse of an idiot at the helm of 'anything', Geithner.

The financial reform (U.S. financial regulation reforms outlined; Reuters) sponsored by the socialists will not contribute in a positive manner to the financial system but rather wipe out efficiency, kill innovation and ensure that it will remain crushed on the bottom of the Atlantic.

Was this not enough dumb socialist feces dropped from their anus into your mouth?

Swallow it and get a dose of hypocrisy!

The Obamanites want to reign in on corporate pay (Administration seeks ways to to tame corporate pay; AP) and would like to implement a shareholder vote. Just go ahead and ask your super-regulator to shut down the company. This is just great, first you enforce legislation which forces companies out of the country and now you want to throw talent out of it as well.

Socialism is great at failure and it will not disappoint this time around.

You want shareholders to vote on corporate pay...

...how about you seek a 'shareholder vote' before you waste trillions of dollars on your socialistic idiocy?

Enjoy the video and try to understand why and how your mutual funds hold your portfolio hostage.



Posted by Apollo on June 15th 2009.

Allow me to start with a quick apology for the past twelve days with no updates and a short thank you to all of those who continued to visit Bulls versus Bears during that time.

What has changed since the last post which was titled 'Sell in June and don't come back to soon' (Bulls versus Bears)?

The short answer is nothing and the long answer is absolutely nothing at all. The economic picture, especially in the U.S., continued to deteriorate sharply while the bulls ran out of room and are slowly fenced in by their own ignorance. Dumb Money is quick to point to early signs of recovery which already raises red flags for the dominant illusion among amateurs about an economic recovery.

The unemployment rate continues to increase and will do so for quite some time. Yes, it is a lagging indicator and not important for an overall economic outlook but weekly jobless claims point to further job losses, probably for the rest of 2009 and most of 2010. They will decrease in size, which should be expected but even monthly job losses of 100,000 hint at no recovery at all. New initial jobless claims have decreased slightly but hover above 600,000 per week. Remember that a number above 400,000 points to severe economic problems. Continued claims continue to set new records which further busts the illusion of a recovery.

Consumer borrowing continues to drop at a huge pace, which was also expected to to heavy job losses. Consumer account for roughly two-thirds of economic activity and the U.S. economy was fueled for over two decades by debt and nothing else. Consumers borrowed money they did not have and spend it which boosted the economy artificially. That was a one-way road an consumer arrived at the end. Consumer spending is absent and deteriorates further. Dumb Money is quick to point to the ex-auto consumer spending increase of 0.5% but is ignorant enough to ignore the 3.6% jump in gasoline station sales due to a surge in gasoline prices. That did not contribute to economic activity. Food and beverage as well as grocery stores rose 0.4%, thanks to higher prices.

Commodity prices surge and set up the super-inflation period thanks to the Septic Tank and his Plumbers' idiotic monetary policy. The recovery will be a period of stagflation which will happen down the road. Those who love the alphabet in order to describe the pattern of the economic recovery are kindly pointed to the letter 'L' which will actually look more like a hockey stick for a few years. The surge in commodity prices and the effects of the worthless U.S. Dollar will wipe out the temporary rise in consumer confidence, which is meaningless when it comes to future economic activity and as a matter of fact the surge in confidence further indicates a peak of this strong bear market rally, and consumers will not be able to contribute to economic activity but rather withdraw their participation to a minimum. The savings rate has increased and will be swallowed by higher commodity prices before this year is over.

The above are just a few reasons why an economic recovery is not only an illusion but rather impossible. The smaller contraction in Q2 GDP is thanks to more debt and will ultimately back fire. Even if there will be a Q3 positive GDP figure, the contraction will continue with very few speed bumps in between. All major posts are manned with incompetent idiots who enforce counter-productive policies which only add to future economic problems. The socialists have a filed day and work overtime to ensure the economy will not prosper again while they also kill the last few chances for a future economic recovery.

Equity markets will start their summer crash as soon as Monday. It is fair to note that the build up has took longer than usual which is normal given the strong bear market rally. Nevertheless, the crash is basically guaranteed. Te markets barely moved last week which means that the drop may come during a shorter period but more severe to counter the delay. The June 2009 equity market crash can not be avoided and Dumb Money will argue that the 20% drop will present a great buying opportunity, which will be nothing more than yet another bull trap. The majority will be caught in that smart bull trap and slaughtered by the markets.

Even the well known amateurs, according to a report published by a goldmine for Dumb Money investors which always has amateurs as guests, wait for a pull back (After Rocking the Rally, Pros Are Hoping for Stock Pullback; CNBC).

How dumb do you have to be to ignore the June 2009 equity market crash?

As dumb as a mutual fund investor or those who claim that mutual funds are managed by professional investors.

Posted by Apollo on June 14th 2009.

This week may just lock in the highs for the year. You don't even need to be semi-intelligent to determine the market's next move. June will finish with a loss and it will cascade into the fall where it will pick up steam and the markets will crush to new lows. The March lows will be breached after Thanksgiving and the Santa Clause Rally will be on a vacation this year as well.

All of those who were smart enough to get in at the March lows, congratulations. You have enjoyed a nice and powerful bear market rally and should have made some decent profits which will give you an even better platform to profit from the next move in the markets. It is obvious that this rally is exhausted and there is no more power behind it. The bulls are about to run into a concrete wall just like GM drove straight to the bankruptcy court (Obama's plan to save GM: bankruptcy, $30 billion; AP). There is no upbeat data, but there is data which points to further weakness and Dumb Money labels it 'better than expected'. That label is as pathetic as the assumption that a mutual fund is a professional investment vehicle. Should you really be dumb enough to buy this market at current levels you deserve to lose it during the rest of the year.

Are you ready for a 3% drop this week and another 3% the following week?

Today's rally was a great one to exit the last longs that you tried to exhaust and the next three days will be great to start your shorts. Just to give you a short, simple and free hint:

Simply short the S&P, NASDAQ Composite and the Dow Jones before the markets close today and add to your shorts, if possible, before Friday. Enjoy your summer! That is basically it. A very uncomplicated move that will put a smile on your face while Dumb Money screams, cries, complains and begs while their three month gains will be evaporated by the heat of the summer.

Sell in June and don't come back to soon!

Posted by Apollo on June 1st 2009.